What the data can't tell us
The comparison is of median hourly pay and doesn't adjust for occupation, hours or years of experience, so it measures the size of the gap rather than its causes. Single-year figures for each group move by several points (the 2005 group went from 89% to 85% between 2010 and 2011), so the change from start to finish is a better guide than any one year. The 2015 group is now 35 to 44, and the next few years will show whether it follows the path of the groups before it.
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Data:
- Pew Research Center, "Women, Work and Caregiving Through the Arc of Family Life" (Oct. 22, 2026), cohort and overall pay-gap series: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2026/10/22/women-work-and-caregiving-through-the-arc-of-family-life/
- Pew's method (median hourly earnings, CPS, full- and part-time workers 16+, self-employed excluded): https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/03/01/the-enduring-grip-of-the-gender-pay-gap/
Tools: Python (matplotlib).
Notes: Each line compares women who were 25–34 in the starting year with men of the same age in each later year. Dashed line is all workers. Raw medians, not adjusted for occupation, hours or experience.
Full story: <site link>
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How we counted: all figures are from Pew Research Center's "Women, Work and Caregiving Through the Arc of Family Life," Oct. 22, 2026. Pew's pay comparisons use median hourly earnings of employed workers 16 and older, full- and part-time, from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey, excluding the self-employed, the method it describes in its earlier pay-gap analyses. Each group compares women who were 25 to 34 in the starting year with men of the same age in each later year. Sources: Pew Research Center, Oct. 22, 2026; Pew method, March 2023. Download the data.